‘HIT THE ROAD, BARACK,’ SHOUTS
The bastion of liberal reportage calls for the President’s departure
ROMNEY APPEARS POISED FOR SIGNIFICANT WIN IN NOVEMBER
A POTENTIAL SHIFT OF REAGANESQUE PROPORTIONS IN THE OFFING?
By Alan Z. Forman
Like a Ray Charles hit, the cover of
The first, as the saying goes, was Bill Clinton. But for Barack Obama and his top advisers this was no laughing matter.
The
Voice of Baltimore believes that as a result a seismic shift in the American electorate began, unlike any this country has seen since 1980 when Ronald Reagan soundly defeated a similarly weak and ineffectual president Jimmy Carter.
The
Within weeks,
But the message was clear: A left-leaning pro-Obama publication was dissing the President. And its liberal parent company was suddenly writing news stories critical of his administration.
PLASTERED ON THE AUG. 27 COVER FOR ALL TO SEE
Granted, the cover story was the opinion of a single columnist — British historian Niall Ferguson, a professor of history at Harvard University and senior research fellow at Oxford — not necessarily that of
The polls were then showing Obama with a comfortable lead over challenger Mitt Romney, but that was a week before actor and director
And weeks before the President’s stunning lackluster performance in the first of three debates, in Denver Oct. 3, an event of potentially seismic proportions, an “October surprise” unlike any that has occurred in presidential politics since Reagan’s election more than 30 years ago.
[See Voice of Baltimore’s lone opinion of the dramatic effect of Eastwood’s allegedly unscripted/unrehearsed convention speech (click here). VoB believes the iconic actor/director accomplished whatever it was he set out to do. Witness the TV ad he produced for the Romney campaign last week — using language from his convention presentation.]
If there’s anything Voice of Baltimore learned from seven years of graduate study in politics it’s that political scientists shouldn’t try to predict political outcomes, especially elections. We’re very good at analyzing results — after the fact but not before.
However, political pundits can sometimes recognize history about to repeat itself, and that’s what VoB sees happening in this year’s presidential election.
Before Ronald Reagan was loved he ran against a weak and ineffectual incumbent Jimmy Carter who didn’t know how to solve the Iranian hostage dilemma that he tried to blame on everyone but himself. Two weeks before the election the impending outcome was too close to call.
Reagan’s advisers in fact were still anticipating an October surprise that would threaten to knock their candidate out of the water. It didn’t happen, of course, but that’s the advantage of hindsight. What turned out to be a huge surprise however was how decisively Reagan won the election, and how massively the country had shifted in his favor.
The shift — unrecognized before the election by virtually all the analysts — was seismic, and didn’t become evident until the returns began rolling in election night. But why such a surprise? The telltale signs were evident all along, only no one looked hard enough to see them.
Yet Reagan wasn’t loved till after his attempted assassination, nearing the end of his first 100 days as president, just as the Democrats were beginning to criticize him at the conclusion of his honeymoon period. It was many more months before anyone could say a critical word about him after that.
Carter was a weak president, and accomplished little in his only term other than bringing the Israelis and Palestinians to Camp David. He entered office on the cusp of Watergate — like Obama, with no national experience — and by most accounts, seemed not to learn on the job. Despite his academic credentials — he’s a Naval Academy graduate — he was ineffectual militarily and is universally considered to have been the worst American chief executive of the twentieth century, ranking near the bottom with Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce and several other failed presidents of the 1800s.
OBAMA AND CARTER: TWO UNLIKELY PRESIDENTS
Had it not been for Watergate and Gerald Ford’s clumsy pardon of Richard Nixon, it’s unlikely Carter would have ever been president at all.
Had Obama not been black, it’s unlikely he would have ever become president either.
Yet if Carter had freed the hostages as late as October or even early November 1980 the Reagan Revolution would never have occurred. Obama is banking on his killing of Osama bin Laden to similarly prevent a Romney Revolution.
In last week’s third debate the GOP nominee politely praised him for eliminating the mastermind of the 9/11 World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, then was lectured by the President, who was “harsh, even condescending at times, toward Romney,” according to the Washington Post.
Obama “later explained, as if to a child,” the Post continued in its reporting of the debate, “that the modern U.S. Navy has aircraft carriers ‘where planes land on them’ and ‘ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines,’ to rebut Romney’s criticism that federal spending cuts threaten to reduce U.S. naval power to levels not seen since early in the last century.”
Not the behavior of a president who’s confident of his reelection.
Plus he’s run out of excuses for why he hasn’t fixed George Bush’s mess that he was presented with when he entered office.
He was elected for his promise. But he has failed to deliver. The nation may be just now learning that, big time.
According to former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan, in her column last weekend in the Wall Street Journal, the arrogant, “petulant, put upon, above it all, full of himself” Obama that was revealed in the debates is actually “the real Obama,” a president — as Bob Woodward describes in his book just published, The Price of Politics — “who is at once over his head, out of his depth and wholly unaware of the fact….
“His confidence is consistently greater than his acumen, his arrogance greater than his grasp,” says Woodward. He is the emperor unclothed, and even his fervent supporters are not liking what they see.
In Sunday’s New York Times’ Sunday Review section Frederick C. Harris, director of the Center on African American Politics and Society, part of Columbia University’s Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, questions, “Have African-American elites given Obama a pass, accepting symbolism over substance?”
Harris then answers his own question — in the affirmative — by concluding: “Sadly, when it comes to the Obama presidency and black America, symbols and substance have too often been assumed to be one and the same.”
For his part, in the third debate, Romney emphasized, “We’re four years closer to a nuclear Iran” but “we can’t kill our way out of this mess” that is worldwide terrorism, perhaps referring to the necessary elimination of terrorist leaders despite the distasteful image of a president’s being required to order assassinations.
On a gut level, Americans don’t like to think of their president as a killer.
INDECISIVE ABOUT KILLING BIN LADEN TILL PRODDED BY CLINTON
To date, the former Navy SEAL — whose book on the bin Laden assassination, No Easy Day, asserts Obama was indecisive until prodded by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to capture and kill the al-Qaeda leader — is the only one to criticize the President’s handling of the matter.
Writing under the pseudonym Mark Owen, Matt Bissonnette claims there was never any intention to capture bin Laden alive, that killing him was the goal of the Obama White House from the get-go. And that had it not been for the secretary of state’s insistence that the mission move ahead, Obama would have continued to waffle indecisively over what to do, postponing the incursion into Pakistan yet again as late as the day before, claiming that weather conditions, although perfect, were not exactly right.
The country has been willing, even eager, to give Obama a pass on most issues, for lots of reasons, not the least of which is the color of his skin. Yet none of us benefits when a president fails.
However Romney, who has long been criticized for being aloof, impersonal and dismissive of the common man, by virtue of the debates is suddenly seen as “presidential,” while by contrast Obama appears arrogant, petulant and defensive.
The President may have “won” the second and third debates — as alleged on Twitter and Facebook — albeit by a razor-thin margin, but Romney appears to be the one who accomplished his objectives.
What Obama “accomplished” at the debates was to reveal his true character, through his condescension and uncontrolled expressions of anger and irritation.
All of which begs the question, Did
Is the President really disdainful of others? Does he actually dislike most people? as one of his former aides was quoted as saying a couple weeks ago.
“It’s stunning that he’s in politics,” the former aide, Neera Tanden, told New York magazine in a recent interview, “because he really doesn’t like people,” adding that “people say the reason Obama wouldn’t call Clinton” during the first two years of his term “is because he doesn’t like him,” only recently renewing his ties with the former president out of political expediency.
“The truth is, Obama doesn’t call anyone, and he’s not close to almost anyone,” Tanden said. “[I]t’s like becoming Bill Gates without liking computers.”
But Obama’s no Bill Clinton. When the Democrats lost their majority two years into Clinton’s first term he readjusted and regrouped, and ultimately proved far more effective dealing with a Republican Congress than he had been with his own party in control. Richard Nixon, another minority president, was similarly effective in his dealings with Congress in the early 1970s.
But Obama has never been able to make that transition.
CLINTON COULD OUTSMART THE GOP AT EVERY TURN
Bill Clinton was able to outsmart the Republican leadership at every turn. Even under threat of impeachment, he ran circles around Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and won additional Democratic seats in the House of Representatives in 1998, a virtually unprecedented gain for a president in a year when he wasn’t personally on the ballot.
Not even Franklin Roosevelt, in more than 12 years as president, could accomplish that feat.
And despite Clinton’s impeachment, it was Gingrich who left the government in disgrace, taking responsibility for his party’s failed initiatives against the Clinton presidency.
Clinton is arguably the most effective and astute politician this country has seen in more than 40 years. If his wife wants to run again for president in 2016, he will make it happen.
Her attempt to deflect blame from Obama for the fiasco in Libya that resulted in the death of American Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three others has all the earmarks of a Bill Clinton-engineered maneuver, as does his “enthusiastic” support on the campaign trail for Obama.
But it is Romney who has made Clinton’s James Carville mantra “It’s the economy, stupid” the focus of this election: The economy and the President’s failure to relieve unemployment and create jobs.
Voice of Baltimore previously noted in this space that it’s not in the Clintons’ best interests for Obama to be reelected. But who can fault them when they put on a display of party and Obama loyalty, even though no one believes that Hillary and the State Department are in the least responsible for the lax security and the killing of our ambassador in Libya.
Or for the lies being told by the administra- tion to cover it up. That is Obama’s albatross.
But does all this mean the voters will abandon him on Nov. 6?
A large percentage of the Jewish population, for example, despite his lukewarm support for the State of Israel say they still intend to vote for him, that he won’t really throw the Jewish nation under the bus as Romney and the Republicans charge he’s done and will continue to do.
And the Baltimore Afro-American newspaper, in spite of the closeness of the final two debates, described Debate No. 2 as a “knockout” for Obama and No. 3 as “checkmate,” both on Page 1. One wonders what the Afro’s editors were watching those two nights?
Fact is, if Obama were white he wouldn’t stand a chance in this election. Still, it remains to be seen how extensive his support will be in the black community — and also the Hispanic. Hispanics do not like Romney and the Republicans’ strong views on illegal immigration.
Being black is thus a mitigating factor for Obama.
Neoconservative pundit Norman Podhoretz summed it up in an August 2011 commentary for the Wall Street Journal:
“To be sure, no white candidate who had close associations with an outspoken hater of America like Jeremiah Wright”— Obama’s spiritual mentor for 20 years — “and an unrepentant terrorist like Bill Ayers would have lasted a single day. But because Mr. Obama was black, and therefore entitled in the eyes of liberaldom to have hung out with protesters against various American injustices, even if they were a bit extreme, he was given a pass.
“And in any case, what did such ancient history matter when he was also articulate and elegant and (as he himself had said) ‘non-threatening,’ all of which gave him a fighting chance to become the first black president and thereby to lay the curse of racism to rest?”
WILL OPRAH STILL BE CRYING TEARS OF JOY?
But will they and the other disparate groups ignore the facts again and embrace him like they did in 2008 against John McCain?
Will
Will the “audacity of hope” be enough to propel Obama to a second four-year term? Or will he crash and burn as the full electorate sees him more and more for what he is?
Voice of Baltimore thinks his time has passed, that the electorate is finally beginning to see him as the emperor unclothed, although we’re not too sure about Oprah’s tears of joy.
We think the playing field is shifting, that people are increasingly unwilling to cut the President the slack that got him into office and sustained him till this point.
We think they’ll no longer accept his excuse that George Bush is responsible for all that’s wrong in America, even after four years of Barack Obama.
We think the country is moving massively toward Romney. And that it could be a shift of Reaganesque proportions.
And we think that’s going to spell defeat for Barack Obama on Election Day.
Washington, D.C. insider Gloria Cataneo Tosi contributed to this commentary.
alforman@voiceofbaltimore.org
October 30th, 2012 - 11:24 AM
Finally!! I’ve long wondered why so many supposedly intelligent people are willing to “look the other way” when it comes to Obama? In 2008 Obama did sound bi-partisan and eloquent, but folks, it didn’t take long to realize that he was just a gifted teleprompter reader and didn’t believe his own words just knew how to make everyone else believe it…the details are almost beyond belief yet the koolaid drinkers keep drinking the koolaid!!! Why??? And after Libya if you can’t see how insincere he is….come on people, watch and read more than one source of news….now I can start buying Newsweek…maybe they can stay in print….
October 31st, 2012 - 4:27 AM
If you love your freedom and you love your job, if you believe in the Founding Fathers of this Country, Please oh Please vote for Mitt. We will be a poor, sorry, communist, 3rd world country if we keep the moronic president we have now, in office!!!
October 31st, 2012 - 5:45 PM
Over the last four years, my take on Obama began as “suspicious” but rapidly progressed to “loathing” as more and more of his un-presidential antics took place. I cannot believe that many previously duped Americans have not caught on.
The Libyan fiasco should wake up every American – even as Obama is avoids the truth like the plague. As to the elimination of Bin Laden, to paraphrase Obama himself: “Mr. President, you didn’t shoot Bin Laden, somebody else did that”!
November 3rd, 2012 - 4:37 PM
Seems to me (and this isn’t original) that we have yet to leave the Reagan era.
If Obama wins, that would be a sign we are headed out of it. If Romney wins, then we’re still in the Reagan era.
November 4th, 2012 - 1:58 AM
In 1970 Johns Hopkins/Harvard-educated political scientist Walter Dean Burnham theorized that American party systems typically remain in place for several decades, only to be disrupted by a “critical election,” a political realignment often ushered in by a presidential election of landslide proportions whereby the new president effects a congressional majority by virtue of his coattails. An example of this would be Franklin Roosevelt’s win in 1932 followed by the Democrats’ landmark New Deal legislation.
The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 similarly changed the political landscape following the Watergate scandal of the early-to-mid seventies, which had virtually decimated the Republican Party after Richard Nixon and prevented a realignment from taking place at that time.
Thus the Roosevelt era arguably lasted until Reagan. However it’s probably too soon to tell if the Reagan era ended with Barack Obama. Certainly if Obama loses Tuesday there will be little impetus for taking that position.
But if he wins a second term and actually makes dramatic changes of the type he promised in 2008, then that would be persuasive evidence that the first black president’s coming to power represents a political realignment.
November 4th, 2012 - 7:52 PM
There are so many misstatements in the article that I will not spend the time and effort to to respond to them all. Instead, allow me give my views on the sad state of politics in this country.
The presidency of George W. Bush was so disastrous that even Republicans shrink from it. The election of Obama seemed transformational at the time, and although he disappointed those of us who had outsized expectations, he is keeping the nation stumbling more or less in the right direction and in my view deserves reelection. What I find appalling, however, is the depth of hatred and fear his presidency has generated. It appears that it was at least a generation too early for a black president.
But the problem goes beyond the hatred and fear of a black president. The degraded state of the Republican Party and the presidential campaign of Mitt Romney point to a more fundamental problem. The nation, the white majority in particular, has lost confidence in the democratic system and is feeling insecure. Racial, religious, cultural and class divisions are widening, are being exploited and becoming in many instances toxic. National and personal security is becoming an obsession. Romney says he’ll add trillions to the defense budget and on the personal level people are arming themselves with increasingly lethal weapons. The disparity in wealth between the rich, the middle class and the poor continues to widen, and there are powerful forces in the country which see nothing wrong with this trend, indeed want it to progress at an even faster pace. Cutting or eliminating taxes for the wealthy at the cost of services to the poor makes no sense as a guiding principle in an advanced and wealthy society such as ours, but that is the mantra of the Republican Party at the moment. Economic theories are just a cover; the goal is to concentrate wealth and power at the very top, and roughly half of the voters in this country seem willing to let that happen. Even the money Romney wants to throw at the defense industry is part of this hoarding instinct, a way of sequestering the nation’s wealth in the treasuries of the rich.
Romney I’m sure was being quite sincere when he talked about the shiftless 47 percent of all Americans whom he sees as social parasites. It was a mystery to me why that speech did not stop his presidential campaign in its tracks after it became public. The reason can only be that potential Romney voters who fall within his 47 percent don’t think he was talking about them. He was talking about those other worthless individuals feeding off the public trough, and they agree there are far too many of them.
Which takes me back to the reason I’m issuing this cry in the wilderness. I don’t remember a presidential campaign in which there have been so many factual distortions and outright lies — lies that can be easily disproven. The Obama camp has engaged in the usual one-sided partisan rhetoric we have grown to expect, but nothing like the shameless and blatant lies coming from Romney and his supporters. One cannot accuse Romney himself of calling Obama an alien, a socialist and a terrorist sympathizer, but he has done nothing to dispel such accusations and indeed they form the subtext of many of his charges, for example his baseless accusation that Obama is against capitalism, has traveled around world apologizing for America, that his first act after the attack on American consulate in Benghazi was to express sympathy for the attackers. Then, of course, there is the sudden and cynical shift in his positions from that of “a severe conservative” to a conservative centrist. His foreign policy in the last debate has evolved to the point where he could be a spokesman for Obama’s State Department. All of this is done with almost psychopathic aplomb, straight faced and without hint of self-consciousness. It shows utter contempt for the American public, and worse it seems to be working.
I recall having a conversation with a colleague long ago in which I complained that his political writings focused too much on winning and too little on ideas and principles. The gist of his response was: moral principles are fine, but one needs first of all to win. In the hard-nosed world of politics, he is probably right, but if this country is going to survive as a democracy, politicians — or statesmen, if you like — need to set higher standards even at the risk of defeat. Confucius said that a ruler must lead by example and not by fiat, which might be unrealistic in modern times (as it was in Confucius’s time), but as a general moral guide it is probably a sound principle. Our politicians need to show us how honest and principled people conduct themselves.
Another conversation I recall was with an affluent, mature, well-educated woman, who insisted that all politicians without exception were crooks. I was a working reporter at the time, so I said I knew several politicians who were honest and dedicated public servants. Her response was, “You are so naïve.” It seems to me the public is increasingly taking on her jaundiced view. Many of them continue to vote, but without giving serious thought to what the candidates are saying — why bother if they’re all crooks and liars. It’s enough if he or she is personable and seems likeable. I wonder whether the public’s seeming indifference to lies and distortions is not attributable to a lack of faith in the political system. Elections have become “horse races” reported, analyzed and judged by a jaded, often cynical and sophisticated media that seem more interested in strategy and tactics than in substance. In debates we look for “knockout blows” and “gaffes,” but an election should never turn on a verbal punch to the jaw or a slip of the tongue, a poor choice of words or bad syntax. We need to set aside our sophistication and remain naive enough to expect and demand intelligence, conviction, honesty and, yes, even wisdom from our office seekers. A Sarah Palin never should have happened, nor for that matter a Mitt Romney. Although Romney is politically more nimble than Palin. he is a tin man, and she a tin man with lipstick.
As one who is only a few months from octogenarian status, I’m beginning to think that our decline is irreversible. Other great civilizations of the past have all toppled, and we will fade away even faster ironically because of our rapidly expanding technologies. Changes that used to take centuries now happen in a few decades, and our shining city on a hill, is sliding ever so much faster toward history’s great landfill.
Believe me, I fervently hope that I will be proven wrong in this.
[The commenter is a former Baltimore Sun reporter and author, now retired. —Ed.]
November 5th, 2012 - 1:31 AM
What the writer seems to forget is that the FIRST week of Obama’s term Mitch McConnell & Beyner came out and publicly announced that the ONLY thing their Republican Congress would do is to STOP this president from gaining a second term.
So, it was quite clear to people who see the situation clearly is that they were going to HALTY all of OBAMA’S proposed legislation, which they DID…AND they clearly did not like taking orders from a BLACK PRESIDENT. THAT”S THE MAOIN ISSUE. THAT was thEIR BEEF !! They were racists…clear and true. And actually, they BETRAYED the entire country bec they did what was good for their party and they felt to hell with the country.
If they were patriots and true LEADERS, they would have passed legislation that Obama proposed, legislation that they themselves had proposed, and Obama finally said, ok, we’ll do it, although he wanted MORE, and when submitted THEIR legislation they still REFUSED TO PASS IT!!! So don’t tell me Obama was a poor president. He did a DAMN GOOD JOB considering everything he had to hurdle. And he NEEDS another term to FINISH the job.
History will write that he was one of the great presidents..YES! Because he did a great deal which he does NOT BOAST about…and the Repubs want to keep it hush hush..Just now the FACTS. not rumopr, not fake data, but one of the Agencies of the Federa; gov’t came out with employment data and the Repubs wanted to keep it quiet…Imagine!! Keep good news quiet!!
The Republican congress this term were a gang of Benedict Arnolds thinking not one thought of compassion for the Middle class or the country …the only theme in their head was STOP OBAMA AT ANY COST !!!.
November 5th, 2012 - 6:34 AM
A clarification: VoB’s intention here was not to take a position on the candidates but to stimulate discussion on the election. The thoughtful comments posted by our readers prove we’ve been successful. In addition, our email box has been filled all week with comments pro and con.
The emotional roller coaster ride ends Tuesday… at least for now.