In the catbird seat — Newt Gingrich catapults to top of GOP pack after winning surprise vic- tory Saturday in South Carolina over 3 rivals.

By Alan Z. Forman

UPDATE (Thurs., Jan. 26th @ 8:25 PM):
WSJ:  A ROMNEY VICTORY IN FLORIDA
‘COULD SEW THIS [NOMINATION] UP’

Wall Street Journal columnist predicts
GOP  presidential  nominee  could be
determined Tues. in Sunshine State

“Newt Gingrich’s South Carolina bump is fading,” asserts columnist Kimberley A. Strassel in Friday’s Wall Street Journal, “and polls show Mitt Romney again leading in Florida.

“A Romney victory in the Sunshine State could sew this up,” Strassel predicts.

However the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Republicans nationwide favoring Gingrich over Romney by a margin of 37-28 percent, the WSJ reports in tomorrow’s edition.

The “Ex-Speaker [of the U.S. House of Representatives] fares worse vs. [President Barack] Obama,” the Journal says in Friday’s paper.

Strassel’s column is online tonight and will appear in tomorrow’s print edition of the Wall Street Journal.  (To read her column in its entirety,  click here.)

—————   —————   —————

If the ability to overcome adversity and steer a steady course from all but certain defeat to absolute victory is the stuff that presidents are made of, former House of Representatives Speaker Newton Leroy Gingrich will become the 45th President of the United States exactly one year from today.

In early June his campaign was considered dead in the water by virtually every knowledgeable pundit and it appeared likely he would have to make an embarrassing exit from the race following the mass exodus then of 16 of his senior staffers.

But he steadfastly refused to quit, despite the resignation of his campaign manager and a half-dozen senior advisers, the heart of his personal staff.

LOOKED LIKE A SURE LOSER

He looked like a sure loser, like John McCain in the summer of 2007 when it appeared former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was destined to be the Republican nominee the following year.

But like a phoenix rising from the ashes, Gingrich today finds himself in the catbird seat, suddenly the candidate to beat after steamrolling to an unlikely win in the first nominating contest of the 2012 campaign in the South.

He came in a distant fourth in Iowa, finished a disappointing fifth in New Hampshire. Was all but counted out just days ago, with ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney expected to seal the nomination with a third consecutive win in South Carolina, then on to Florida Jan. 31 to wrap it up.

But overnight the former speaker’s fortunes changed as Romney suffered three consecutive setbacks late in the week, culminating in his Saturday loss to rejuvenated candidate Gingrich.

HUNTSMAN DROPPED OUT, ENDORSED ROMNEY

On Monday, ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. dropped out of the race, endorsing Romney, the high point of the former frontrunner’s week.

However, early Thursday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry abruptly withdrew from contention and threw his support behind Gingrich, terming the former speaker a “conservative visionary.”

This was followed late in the day by the Iowa Republican Party’s stripping Romney of his eight-vote victory in that state’s first-in-the-nation presidential contest January 3, the Iowa caucuses.

The GOP’s Iowa party chairman reported that in fact Romney had been defeated by former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) by a 34-vote margin, thereby helping catapult Gingrich to his surprise victory in the Palmetto State today.

Erstwhile frontrunner Willard Mitt Romney was defeated in Saturday's South Carolina Republican presidential primary by Newt Gingrich by a vote of 243,153 to 167,279, a margin of 40-28 percent. Ex-Pa. Sen. Rick Santorum got 17 percent of the vote and Rep. Ron Paul got 13 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry withdrew Thurs.

Suddenly Romney, about whom many Republicans have had doubts because of his history of flip-flopping on important issues, began to look more and more like a certain loser, as those who had harbored doubts about Gingrich began more and more to see him as the one Republican with the best chance of defeating incumbent President Barack Obama next November.

GEO. ROMNEY ‘BRAINWASHED’

Not since Mitt’s late father George — a former governor of Michigan and later Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Nixon Administration, who was a Republican presidential contender in 1968 — said he had been “brainwashed” by military officials into supporting the Vietnam War, has a Romney had such a bad political week.

The nomination is far from locked up, to be sure; however Gingrich, not Romney, now appears to be the man to beat.

Unfortunately for Republicans, many of the party faithful question whether either is capable of defeating President Obama in a head-to-head contest.

For all his faults, they recognize, Obama is still a formidable campaigner.

In addition, despite widespread disappointment with his tenure as President, much of his political base is unlikely to support a Republican, regardless of who it may be, Gingrich, Romney or whoever.

Still, both parties have precedents for nominating presidential candidates that can’t win. In 1972 the Democrats nominated former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, and in 1996 the Republicans nominated then-Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas.

What’s more, even Gingrich’s supporters are uncertain whether he can overcome his many negatives, most notably his highly publicized marital infidelities and reputation for being quick-tempered and unforgiving.

RECEIVES HIGH MARKS

He receives high marks however for his debating prowess, and many credit his outstanding performance in the two most recent presidential debates as contributing heavily to his South Carolina win.

For conservatives, who see Romney as lacking inspiration and drive, Gingrich is the “fighter” who can defeat the Democrats in November.

However in the biggest political fight of his career — as speaker — he lost notably to President Bill Clinton and the Democrats in the 1998 election when the President’s party, despite Clinton’s impending impeachment, gained seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, a virtually unprecedented achievement for an off-year election.

As a result, Gingrich took blame for the Republicans’ losses and resigned — not just as Speaker of the House but from Congress altogether.

Clinton went on to be acquitted of the impeachment charges and has enjoyed more than a decade of popularity in his retirement, during which time Gingrich made a name for himself as an insightful conservative pundit, leading to his current campaign for President.
 
alforman@voiceofbaltimore.org